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RESEARCH SUBSCRIPTIONS: FINANCIAL EDITION
Research Published on The Financial Edition
INDUSTRY UPDATE SUMMARY JULY 2011
TRAVELSTATS, September 2011 show abstract Lately we’ve been talking about travel’s "paradoxical recovery," featuring better statistics for both the airline and especially the hotel industry, coupled with a weakening general economy and declining shares as the market bets on the bad macro news to first obscure and then overtake the micro improvements in demand and prices for flights and hotel rooms. This month, the contrast is clearer than ever.
GROUPON’S INDISCRETION BRINGS UNEXPECTED LOOK AT ITS COMING TRAVEL BONANZA
FINANCIAL FLASH, September 2011 show abstract Groupon has had a rough couple of months, getting beaten up in a dispute over how it accounts for its marketing spending.
ONLINE TRAVEL AGENCIES: 2Q11 REVIEW & 3Q11 FIRST LOOK
FINANCIAL QUARTERLY OUTLOOK, September 2011 show abstract Global bookings growth sped up for online travel agencies in 2Q11 and should hold up in the next quarter. While 2Q11 profit margins fell, they still exceeded expectations – and 3Q11 is likely to bring the first rise in three quarters.
PHOCUSWRIGHT’S U.S. TRAVEL INDUSTRY’S WILD RIDE
PODCAST, September 2011 show abstract PhoCusWright’s financial analyst and director Financial Edition Tim Mullaney discusses the state of the industry, supplier vs. online travel agency dynamics, Google-ITA, recent IPOs, and other key trends shaping U.S. travel in 2011 and beyond. 19 min. Due to the variances in audio settings on different computers, please take a few moments to adjust the volume on your computer to best experience the podcast.
INDUSTRY UPDATE SUMMARY JUNE 2011
TRAVELSTATS, August 2011 show abstract Travel continues to be a tale of two stories: The Main Street story features slowly improving demand and (except for airline fuel) pretty tightly controlled costs, while the Wall Street story continues to be dominated by worries that the recovery won’t last. Airline demand is up – a little bit more than the usual seasonal push – but stocks are tepid. Hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) is the highest since 2008, and occupancy rose 4 points in June. So naturally stocks in both industries were sluggish to down by late July.
EXPEDIA’S TURNAROUND ON TRACK, BUT NOT FULLY ONLINE YET
FINANCIAL FLASH, July 2011 show abstract Expedia’s second-quarter earnings report pleased Wall Street – shares rose more than 10% in late trading after the world’s largest online travel agency reported that operating income before amortization rose 11%. The better part is how Expedia did it.
WHY KAYAK’S IPO SHOULDN’T BE A HOSTAGE TO GOOGLE-ITA
FINANCIAL SPOTLIGHT, July 2011 show abstract Fears abound in the travel industry following the Google-ITA merger -- but potential investors shouldn't let it scare them away from the Kayak IPO.
INDUSTRY UPDATE SUMMARY MAY 2011
TRAVELSTATS, July 2011 show abstract The most striking thing about this month’s data is that the travel market, and especially the hotel industry, seems to be staging a decent, modestly accelerating recovery even as parts of the stock market run for the hills. Someone is going to be wrong.
HOMEAWAY SURGES ON IPO DAY, PROVES US RIGHT (FOR NOW)
FINANCIAL FLASH, July 2011 show abstract The initial public offering of HomeAway, Inc. on June 29 was a smashing success.
ONLINE TRAVEL AGENCIES: 1Q11 REVIEW & 2Q11 FIRST LOOK
FINANCIAL QUARTERLY OUTLOOK, July 2011 show abstract Bookings and revenue for the U.S. public online travel agencies were stronger than expected in 1Q11. In 2Q11, bookings growth is expected to accelerate alongside easing margin pressure.
HOMEAWAY’S IPO IS PRICED RIGHT (SURPRISE!)
FINANCIAL FLASH, June 2011 show abstract HomeAway Inc. announced that it will offer shares in its upcoming initial public offering at a price between US$24 to $27 a share, valuing the company at as much as $2.16 billion. Considering the very strong valuations of much less solid Internet companies than HomeAway, this deal looks like a decent opportunity for early investors to make money on an IPO without flipping shares on the first trading day, expected sometime next week.
EXPEDIA/GROUPON – A NEW HOTEL INTERMEDIARY?
FINANCIAL FLASH, June 2011 show abstract Once the potential of social media to sell travel became obvious, one hard-to-avoid question was whether traditional online travel leader Expedia would be nimble enough to make whatever transition was necessary. In particular, the galloping momentum of daily-deal site Groupon, which was getting about 10% of its business from travel, loomed as something that could take a bite out of Expedia’s leisure business at the margins. The answer to that question came in the June 1 announcement that Expedia and Groupon will team up to launch a new site called Groupon Getaways with Expedia.
TRAVEL'S VC PIPELINE: TWO IPOS, SOME M&A, AND SOME EARLY-STAGE STARS
FINANCIAL SPOTLIGHT, June 2011 show abstract Since 1999, travel startups have raised $1.3 billion in pre-IPO capital. This Spotlight examines two prominent upcoming online travel IPOs – Kayak and HomeAway. In addition, it looks at a handful of other still-independent companies with strong IPO potential, with a focus on innovation and financial opportunity.
THE BIG WINNER IN AIRBNB’S BILLION-DOLLAR ROUND MAY BE HOMEAWAY
FINANCIAL FLASH, June 2011 show abstract The travel world is reacting to this week’s news that Airbnb, the San Francisco-based startup that connects would-be renters and owners of vacation properties and other spaces, is close to raising US$100 million of venture capital at a $1 billion-plus valuation, according to TechCrunch. The deal is a remarkable validation for Airbnb. The happiest people in the room, however, might well be the folks at rival HomeAway.
INDUSTRY UPDATE SUMMARY APRIL 2011
TRAVELSTATS, June 2011 show abstract Like the rest of the economy, the travel industry continues to recover in fits and starts. Demand is better, but maybe not as good as some had anticipated a few months ago. And profit gains are harder to come by than many had expected. Unless, of course, you run Priceline.com.
ANALYST INTERVIEW: ASIA PACIFIC TRAVEL MARKET AND RESEARCH SUBSCRIPTION
PODCAST, May 2011 show abstract Lorraine Sileo, vice president, research, interviews Douglas Quinby, senior director, research, about the Asia Pacific travel market. 14 min. Due to the variances in audio settings on different computers, please take a few moments to adjust the volume on your computer to best experience the podcast.
ANALYST INTERVIEW: HEAT FROM THE MIDDLE SEAT
PODCAST, May 2011 show abstract Douglas Quinby, senior director, research, interviews Carroll Rheem, author of Heat From The Middle Seat: The U.S. Consumer Perspective on Air Travel, about research highlights from the report. 16 min. Due to the variances in audio settings on different computers, please take a few moments to adjust the volume on your computer to best experience the podcast.
EXPEDIA TO SPIN OFF TRIPADVISOR: WILL IT BE A (TRAVEL) ZOO?
FINANCIAL FLASH, April 2011 show abstract Expedia said April 7 that it will spin off its TripAdvisor business, which has been growing as interest in travel-related advertising and consumer reviews of hotels surges. The move will create two companies: Expedia will retain its slower-growing, consumer-oriented online travel agencies, including Expedia.com, Hotels.com and Hotwire.com, while TripAdvisor pursues more travel advertisers, which still devote far fewer dollars to the Internet than the medium’s share of travel bookings and eyeballs should command.
OTA 4Q10 REVIEW/1Q11 PREVIEW
FINANCIAL QUARTERLY OUTLOOK, April 2011 show abstract In 4Q10, online travel agency (OTA) bookings growth decelerated from a peak in 1Q10, with growth in the U.S. tracking roughly in line with the underlying travel industry. Looking ahead, OTAs appear to be stepping up their planned investment spending, focused to some extent on new technology systems and expanding their international footprints in APAC and South America.
INDUSTRY UPDATE SUMMARY MARCH 2011
TRAVELSTATS, April 2011 show abstract Early 2011 has brought the online travel sector a mixed bag of financial news. Hotels were buoyed by optimism over higher occupancy in an improving U.S. economy – but not too much, since pricing is well below the last up-cycle’s peaks. Airlines saw some of those same forces, but their stocks were weighed down by fuel price worries, itself a function of Middle Eastern political turmoil, cutting into profits even amid slowly rising demand for seats. And online travel agencies, other than Priceline, struggled to convince Wall Street that they could boost profits.
WALL STREET RUNS AS EXPEDIA BETS GROWTH
FINANCIAL SPOTLIGHT, March 2011 show abstract Expedia announced it will take a short-term profit hit to expand its business on the global, social and mobile fronts. Wall Street hates the idea – but PhoCusWright believes this strategy could be a brilliant move.
HOMEAWAY IPO COULD GO UP, UP AND AWAY
FINANCIAL FLASH, March 2011 show abstract HomeAway, Inc. filed its first paperwork for an initial public offering on March 14, setting the stage for an IPO drive that has an excellent chance to be successful.
OPODO'S FINANCIAL ENGINEERING THREATENS TO REINFORCE THE COMPANY'S LAGGARD STATUS
FINANCIAL SPOTLIGHT, March 2011 show abstract In February 2011, Amadeus IT Holdings announced that will sell its Opodo European online travel agency to private equity firms for an enterprise value of €450 million. This Spotlight examines Opodo’s history and recent performance, along with the likely impact of the deal on the OTA’s future growth and innovation.
PRESENTATION - TRUTH, MYTH AND PITH: PHOCUSWRIGHT'S 2011 TRAVEL INDUSTRY TRENDS
PRESENTATION, February 2011 show abstract In this recorded 1-hour Online Event, PhoCusWright analysts share their take on the most important trends impacting the travel industry in 2011. This Online Event highlights what's hot, what's hype, and what will make headlines in the year ahead. Note: The link to access the recording is on page 2.
OTA 3Q10 REVIEW/4Q10 PREVIEW
FINANCIAL QUARTERLY OUTLOOK, January 2011 show abstract Public online travel agencies generally exceeded expectations in 3Q10, with strength at Expedia in the U.S. and Priceline abroad. In 4Q10, we expect global bookings growth to decelerate against a tougher 2009 comparison, but still anticipate expanding margins.
VALUING TRAVEL: HOW DOES PRICELINE TOP ALL BUT CARNIVAL?
FINANCIAL SPOTLIGHT, January 2011 show abstract While some of the traditional stalwarts in the travel sector may be larger today in terms of revenue and profit, online travel is expected to grow faster and generate superior profit margins over an extended period. This Spotlight explores the tools and methods used to size and value the broad travel industry, including hotel chains, airlines, car rental companies, cruise lines and OTAs.
AA-OTA CONTROVERSY CONTINUES TO GAIN STEAM
FINANCIAL FLASH, January 2011 show abstract American Airlines indicated in a press release that ticket sales have not been hurt by the Expedia-Orbitz controversy, noting that growth has been sustained with share simply shifting to others. While we do not expect a material financial impact on near-term operating results for Expedia or Orbitz, the controversy will continue to dominate the headlines.
THE PLACES PAGE THREAT
FINANCIAL FLASH, December 2010 show abstract Google Places has caused a bit of a stir in the online travel world, particularly for Expedia’s TripAdvisor. By returning Places content above natural results – where Expedia.com and TripAdvisor typically rank toward the top – there is potential risk to TripAdvisor’s traffic and revenue. We have taken a look at the potential financial risk to TripAdvisor and its parent Expedia.
INDUSTRY UPDATE SUMMARY NOVEMBER 2010
TRAVELSTATS, December 2010 show abstract While airfares and room rates continue to rise, growth is coming at a decelerating pace in the early part of 4Q10. On the demand side of the equation we saw October airline agency transaction volume growth slowing, and notably so for the OTAs. Given tougher comparisons in most key travel metrics starting in late 2009 and into early 2010, we would expect to see moderating growth across the travel industry in 4Q10 and 1Q11.
ANALYST INTERVIEW: PHOCUSWRIGHT’S TRAVELER TECHNOLOGY SURVEY 2010
PODCAST, November 2010 show abstract Cathy Schetzina, senior research analyst, interviews Carroll Rheem, author of PhoCusWright's Traveler Technology Survey 2010, about research highlights from the report. 15 min. Due to the variances in audio settings on different computers, please take a few moments to adjust the volume on your computer to best experience the podcast. Monthly Publication
Monthly Data Feed Key demand factors include: air traffic, airfares, hotel room nights, average daily rates and online travel site traffic. Key supply side factors include: air capacity, airline load, hotel construction as well as proprietary surveys tracking trends in room rates and providing cross-channel price comparisons. Quarterly Publication |
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"OTAs in China: Consumers Look, But Will They Book?"
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